James M. Robins presents "Target Trials and Structural Nested Models: Emulating RCTs using Observational Longitudinal Data"
Publication information:
James M. Robins presents "Target Trials and Structural Nested Models: Emulating RCTs using Observational Longitudinal Data". 2023.
Abstract
Target trials are RCTs one would like to conduct but cannot for ethical, financial, and/or logistical reasons. Consequently, we must emulate such trials from observational data. A novel aspect of target trial methodology is that, for purposes of data analysis, each subject in the observational study is ‘enrolled’ in all target trials for which the subject is eligible, instead of a single trial. I will describe recent theoretical results connecting target trial methodology and structural nested models. I will discuss a novel inferential conundrum that arises from this connection. Finally I will discuss the question: How do we validate causal estimates from observational data.
Full text
Target trials are RCTs one would like to conduct but cannot for ethical, financial, and/or logistical reasons. Consequently, we must emulate such trials from observational data. A novel aspect of target trial methodology is that, for purposes of data analysis, each subject in the observational study is ‘enrolled’ in all target trials for which the subject is eligible, instead of a single trial. I will describe recent theoretical results connecting target trial methodology and structural nested models. I will discuss a novel inferential conundrum that arises from this connection. Finally I will discuss the question: How do we validate causal estimates from observational data.