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X-WR-CALNAME;VALUE=TEXT:Game-changers: Detecting shifts in the flow of campaign contributions- Presenter: Matt Blackwell
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SUMMARY:Game-changers: Detecting shifts in the flow of campaign contributions- Presenter: Matt Blackwell
DESCRIPTION:<p><span><strong>Presenter: </strong><span>Matt Blackwell</span></span></p><p><span><strong>Abstract:</strong> <span>n this paper, I introduce a Bayesian model for detecting changepoints in a time-series of contributions to candidates over the course of a campaign. This game-changers model is ideal for campaign contributions data because it allows for overdispersion, a key feature of contributions data. Furthermore, while many extant changepoint models force researchers to choose the number of changepoint ex ante, the game-changers model incorporates a Dirichlet process prior in order to estimate the number of changepoints along with their location. I demonstrate the usefulness of the model in data from the 2012 Republican primary and the 2008 U.S. Senate elections.</span></span></p>
LOCATION:1737 Cambridge Street, K354
STATUS:CONFIRMED
DTSTART:20140910T160000Z
DTEND:20140910T173000Z
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