#  Game-changers: Detecting shifts in the flow of campaign contributions- Presenter: Matt Blackwell 

 



####  calendar\_today Date and Time 

 **September 10, 2014** 

 12:00PM - 01:30PM EDT 

####  pin\_drop Location 

 **1737 Cambridge Street, K354**  



 

 



 

**Presenter:** Matt Blackwell

**Abstract:** n this paper, I introduce a Bayesian model for detecting changepoints in a time-series of contributions to candidates over the course of a campaign. This game-changers model is ideal for campaign contributions data because it allows for overdispersion, a key feature of contributions data. Furthermore, while many extant changepoint models force researchers to choose the number of changepoint ex ante, the game-changers model incorporates a Dirichlet process prior in order to estimate the number of changepoints along with their location. I demonstrate the usefulness of the model in data from the 2012 Republican primary and the 2008 U.S. Senate elections.



 

 



 

 

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